Pause of military aid to Ukraine, comment on Taiwan hint at Trump's 'deal-making'
US President Donald Trump reportedly ordered a pause to all US military aid to Ukraine.
The move comes just days after an argument at the Oval Office meeting in which Trump and US Vice President JD Vance upbraided Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for being insufficiently grateful for Washington's backing.
Pausing aid is a step to pressure Zelenskyy into accepting Trump's plan to end the Ukraine war through peace negotiations with Russia.
Washington is also said to be drawing up a plan to potentially give Russia, which invaded Ukrainian territory, sanctions relief.
Ukraine is being driven to sign a deal by which it would cede part of its land to Russia and give the US access to its deposits of rare earth minerals in return for aid already sent to Ukraine, but likely without the promise of a US security guarantee.
Meanwhile, Trump said Monday that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be "catastrophic."
He made the remarks at a White House announcement of chipmaking giant Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.'s plan to invest $100 billion to expand its US manufacturing operations.
His words contrast with what he had said just days prior when asked by a reporter whether he would ensure that China never takes Taiwan by force during his presidency. He declined to give a definitive answer: "I never comment on that."
These incidents hint at Trump's view of international relations in the context of "deal-making." The US under Trump is not the US we have known. Its status as the leader of the free world that it has maintained for the 80 years since the end of World War II will likely now be nowhere in sight, at least for the four years to 2029.
Though South Korea cannot be compared with Ukraine on the same footing, it is hard to ignore Trump's solution to the situation in Ukraine.
If the war in Ukraine ends, the US will likely shift the focus of its security policy to Asia.
Considering Washington's strategic goal of containing China, there is little prospect of the US withdrawing from Northeast Asia immediately. But some Korea experts in the US forecast that Washington will likely adjust the main role of US forces in South Korea to focus on China. In that case, the South Korean military will likely be required to take charge of defense against conventional warfare, except for reining in North Korea's nuclear weapons programs.
Seoul should not exclude the possibility of an attempt by Trump to strike a deal directly with his North Korean and Russian counterparts and declare the Korean War over, freeze North Korea's nuclear arsenal and give Pyongyang sanctions relief.
Considering the recently closer Pyongyang-Moscow relations, South Korea needs to prepare for Russia's possible influence on North Korea if the North comes to the negotiating table.
In view of the Trump's transactional style, it is likely Washington will demand Seoul increase its share in paying the costs of stationing US forces in Korea.
South Korea should seek opportunities to beef up its US alliance. One of its bargaining chips lies in shipbuilding cooperation.
The US has alluded to the necessity of South Korea's cooperation in building US warships, apparently to catch up with China in military shipbuilding.
South Korea's Minister of Trade, Industry and Energy Ahn Duk-geun recently visited Washington and presented ways for Korean shipbuilders to supply warships, liquefied natural gas tankers and icebreakers to the US preferentially. US officials are said to have responded positively.
South Korea is an important ally for the US in its efforts to hold China in check. So far as Trump needs security and economic cooperation with South Korea, the country would have opportunities to strengthen its US alliance.
And yet it has to brace for the worst-case scenario as well, because a values-based alliance is on the verge of disintegration. To survive and protect its national interest amid these changes, it has to build its own strength. When it comes to protecting ourselves, all options, including nuclear deterrence, should be considered.
koreadherald@heradcorp.com